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C'de Baca, J.; Miller, W. R.; and Lapham, S. Journal of Substance Abuse Treatment, vol. 21, pgs. 207-215 (2001) A sample of DWI (driving while impaired) offenders was studied to compare various approaches for predicting reoffenses over a 4-year period. Logistic regression yielded multivariate predictor equations that were significantly statistically, but correctly classified fewer than 10% of repeat offenders. As a different approach, 5 predictor variables that were consistently correlated with reoffense status were examined to determine the cut score at which the repeat offense rate exceeded base rate, and were then combined to yield the number of risk factors (from 0 to 5) shown by each offender. The composite score proved quite successful in predicting recidivism. The algorithm also worked well in a hold-out sample of offenders whose assessment profiles were invalid. Although generalizability of specific algorithms across populations needs to be examined, this method appears promising as a clinically accessible way to accurately discriminate within a given offender population those who are most like to repeat the offense.
A sample of DWI (driving while impaired) offenders was studied to compare various approaches for predicting reoffenses over a 4-year period. Logistic regression yielded multivariate predictor equations that were significantly statistically, but correctly classified fewer than 10% of repeat offenders. As a different approach, 5 predictor variables that were consistently correlated with reoffense status were examined to determine the cut score at which the repeat offense rate exceeded base rate, and were then combined to yield the number of risk factors (from 0 to 5) shown by each offender. The composite score proved quite successful in predicting recidivism. The algorithm also worked well in a hold-out sample of offenders whose assessment profiles were invalid. Although generalizability of specific algorithms across populations needs to be examined, this method appears promising as a clinically accessible way to accurately discriminate within a given offender population those who are most like to repeat the offense.
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